Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed chaos, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly split population where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unity has masked the lack of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in academia but hardly any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with the basics. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author endorses unity or the status quo. They authors two articles that strive for neutrality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and social figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates range over flags and symbols, duties, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," said O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the notion that there could be good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they prefer unification but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate points, he said. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will ultimately lose but both parties has has important lessons to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, said O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
