Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the introduction of a new comprehensive peace framework for resolving the conflict appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: another massive barrage of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction
The chain of conflicting incidents captured the bleak nature of the recent timeframe. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: positive announcements are released from different nations. Immense energy is expended on restraining specific proposals. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "resolution".
Nocturnal Warfare
As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from enemy soil, a capability enabled by timely intelligence. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been scrambled to engage hostile guided weapons streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.
Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: defensive missiles deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, probably delivered by Western nations. Every launch shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly transforms into grim resignation: possibly the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from devastation and additional electricity failures.
Continuous Dangers
Following this, a automatic firearm fired at a drone in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its target.
Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, damage and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those entire period illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a need that regional partners are clearly incapable to substitute in the immediate future.
Failed Diplomacy
The 28-point plan from American leadership generated strong feelings, debate and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.
Every new approach from US leadership unfolds according to the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, undoubtedly, persist.
Strategic Calculations
It is convenient to criticize certain parties of consistently pushing Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership works based on a principle well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration assumes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to surrender the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does nothing to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from assuming that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its favour in the near future.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the result.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding civilians and areas but avoiding a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its favour.
Existing Situation
Factually, there are no genuine requirements for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: political desires to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not switch to domestic problems. And although their task will now be much harder after current events, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.
These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a only one week to eliminate the 28 points of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.
While new plans based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, mainly require continued Western support.
